Will there be a war between Israel and Iran?

On 31 July 2024, Ismail Haniyeh, the former leader of Hamas, the Palestinian libration organization was assassinated in Tehran, Iran. Following the assassination of the former president of Iran Ebrahim Raisi in May of the same year. These are not the only high profile figures that have been assassinated by Israel that are directly linked to Iran or its proxies or allies. This begs the question:

How much humiliation does Iran as a sovereign nation need before it responds in an adequate way? Will it ever respond? Will there be a war between Iran and Israel?

In order to answer this question, one must understand the very complex geo-political situation in the middle east including the relationship between Israel, Iran, their neighbours in the middle east and the west, and also the east.

Since Israel’s war on Gaza started, and failing to achieve the goal of this war, Israel has been desperate to score any “success” by murdering as many civilians as possible and prolonging the war as much as possible hoping that they would kill a few Hamas leaders while pursuing their indistinctive killing. During this hopeless endeavour, Israel has been trying so hard to pull Iran and Hezbollah into a big regional war. By starting this regional war, Israel would restore the unlimited and unchallenged support of its western allies who cannot justify to their people why they are supporting a genocide where almost all the victims are helpless women and children. But a war against Iran? That’s more convincing to the everyday western man. America does not want this war to happen. This war would be catastrophic to the already struggling world economy and it would be too costly to the whole world.

Iran also does not want to go to war. Iran knows that starting a war now means the end to their nuclear project and to all their future ambitions. Iran knows too well that if it goes to war against Israel and its allies, it will be crushed and it can never willingly go to war without the green light from Russia and China. Russia and China will not give the green light at this stage of their power struggle. They have projects that are more important to them than engaging in a destructive world war that will erase all their ambitions as well.

Explaining the US position is a little less obvious. On the one hand, it’s hard to imagine that Israel is able to do all its assassinations and provocations of Iran without help from the US. On the other hand, the US knows too well that one miscalculated move could lead to a war that it is really trying to avoid. There are only two possibilities:

1. Israel is a spoiled bratty child, America is a muscled brainless dad: In this scenario, Israel is making all the reckless decisions without approval from the United states and the united states has to defend it with all its muscle regardless of the situation.
2. Israel and America are in complete coordination about all their moves: In this scenario,

• Israel and America call all the shots together.
• Israel announce that they did it so the Israeli government take the credit
• The US gaslights everyone and claims that they were unaware of this reckless action, which allows them to continue to play as a mediator for peace. Fooling everyone to sit on the same table and negotiate.
• The US holds the stick to Iran warning them that if they retaliate they will be reduced to ashes, and holding the carrot telling them that if they swallow it they will be allowed to complete their nuclear project after the war on Gaza ends.

I find that scenario 2 is far more likely. America is no brainless dad. America, as well as Israel has always been the villain.

I actually believe that Iran sold Haniyeh to Israel and the US in order to spare itself an all-out war with a promise that America will let them go on with their nuclear project - A promise that they will not keep as always. Iran will make one final weak retaliation where Iran appears to have taken its revenge and Israel appears to have been victorious and then announce an end to the Gaza war which “already achieved its objectives”.

Based on all that I conclude:

• There will never ever be a war between Iran and Israel and the US.
• Iran is not a friend of Israel but it’s not their enemy either. Iran is just there to provide power balance
• America does not wish to destroy Iran. Iran is extremely useful to America and Israel because they serve many purposes:
  1. Iran is the perfect fake axis of resistance to Israel. All talk, no action, the resistance that does not harm anyone.
  2. Iran is always at odds with all sunni resistance forces that fight against the presence of Israel and the US in the region. Al Qaeda, Taliban et. al.
  3. Iran - A Shia’ nation - and their expansive approach in the Sunni Muslim countries is perfect for destabilising the region and diverting their attention from Israel.
  4. Iran is the perfect scare craw for makes the Sunni gulf countries always desperate for America’s weapons and protection. If Iran was to disappear, how can America tame the Sunnis?
  5. Assassinating Haniyeh was a dirty deal between Iran and Israel. The Gaza war will conclude soon and Israel will agree to a deal after which Israel will go back to doing Israel things.